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Is an Earnings Beat in Store for Archer Daniels (ADM) in Q1?

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We expect leading food processing company, Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2017 results on May 2.

Last quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 6.3%. Moreover, the bottom line has underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters. However, the company recorded an average beat of 2.5% in the last four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Archer Daniels may beat earnings because it has the right combination of the two key components.

Zacks ESP: Archer Daniels currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.64%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate is 62 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged lower at 61 cents. A favorable Zacks ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise. You may uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Archer Daniels carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. Conversely, Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.

The combination of Archer Daniels’ Zacks Rank #3 and positive ESP make us reasonably confident of a positive earnings beat.

What's Driving Better-than-Expected Earnings?

Archer Daniels has outperformed the broader sector in the past one year mainly driven by focus and progress on strategic initiatives. Shares of the company have grown 14.2% in the last one year, ahead of the Zacks categorized Consumer Staples sector that gained 3.7%.



We believe the company’s constant focus on cost-savings along with enhancing processing capabilities and global footprint through strategic acquisitions bode well. Looking ahead, Archer Daniels remains on track with its strategic growth plan, as is evident from various buyouts, efficient portfolio management and organic growth projects. Moreover, the company exceeded its run-rate cost savings goal for 2016. In the light of these factors, along with improved market conditions and expectations of better contributions from recent projects and businesses, the company remains confident of delivering solid results in 2017.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 61 cents per share for the first quarter reflects growth of 45.6% from the year-ago quarter. Also, analysts polled by Zacks expect revenue of $ 15.3 billion for the quarter, representing a 6.3% upside from the prior-year quarter.

All these factors keep us optimistic about the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Other Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Rocky Brands Inc. (RCKY - Free Report) , expected to release earnings on Apr 27, currently has an Earnings ESP of +77.78% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Pinnacle Foods Inc. , scheduled to report earnings on Apr 27, currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.17% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on May 24, currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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